十月股票期權倉(月結)未來的未來

上個月月結先叫自己步步為營,十月份本熊便滑鐵盧了,大市係升嘅、實貨倉係赢嘅、絕大部份期權係正數嘅、但只要輸喺一隻股票度 (輸得實在太甘)都已經差不多將一切wipe all out了,啲隻股票叫做BYND

BYND (Beyond Meat) 中文叫未來漢堡,齋睇名字都知道佢係sell concept「未來」嘅,佢使命係做plant based meat 以取代傳統豬牛鷄啲肉類產品,以減少對地球嘅負荷 (環保)、同時讓客戶食得健康啲 (纯素)

作為美國公司,BYND 不斷拓展美國零售市場,與不同快餐連鎖巨頭合作,如Dunkin、肯德基,最近與麥當勞也在進行試驗計劃。另海外巿場也在發展中,如香港的Green Common 三幾年前便把其引入到港了。

一路講「未來」咁當然無乜「現在」或歷史啲基本因素支持,雖然營業額不斷跳升 (YonY 250%) 但只是最新一季度才開始盈利,所以無乜市盈率可以參考。作為market disruptor,最近似物種要數TSLA了。BYND 今年五月IPO $25上市,第一口價已係$45,一度炒上近$240,八月初曾以$160 增發股份,一個月前股價還在$150水平。

由於十月底 (29/10) IPO 禁售期完結,加上市場 (忽然好好擔心新來者如Impossible Meat 嘅競爭,股價於是一直跌咗成個月,至執筆時$82 一個月跌咗四十五個巴仙。

本熊月初以$125-8 起步sp,打算roll $110-8 防守,可佢真係越跌越有,29/10 一個gap down 無左兩成,本熊所有positions 便跟著跌至深淵。

其實早個多月前本熊老闆group Wilson pm 本熊說做左Nov15 135 sp,本熊更提醒BYND 十月尾有解禁期,著十一月要小心點。本熊懶醒認為IPO 解禁前係「安全期」原因係若大戶想出貨佢應該會做到個價高一高或至少會維持秩序 (斷不會狂瀉近半掛是以打算玩到十月中便停手,可現實告訴本熊完全想錯了。

中重招嘅原因除左懶醒外,還進入了思考誤區,第一個要數「稟賦效應」即擁有認同時會比好多原因說服自己 (稟賦;若沒有擁有不認同時又會比好多原因否定其價值。這思維方式不只限於股票,放諸其他投資取向也是如此 (例如買樓唔買樓這些千年迷思)。由於熊娘全素食左大概三年,兩口子一直係beyond meat 嘅忠實支持者,所以便稟賦左BYND 嘅股票「價值」就算其「價格」沒有太多實質支持。

第二個誤點係「錨定效應」即心目中嘅reference point,以股票而言即目標價支持位這些通常係大戶做比散戶睇的,好讓控制後者嘅行為 (買入或賣出決定)。以BYND 股價第一個錨要數$240啲個目前record high,通常散戶會以歷史高位回調多少「衡量」其價格水平,那怕其實「價位」或許係用好好少成交做成的。BYND 股價第二個錙係$160啲個八月增發價位,因為係比真金白銀成左三百幾萬股的(也許要開始懷疑有無貓膩在其中?!最後第三個錨可以係29/10 $8x 水平成交左幾千萬股,換手率係驚人嘅50%左右,係平日成交十倍以上。咁啲個位又要如何解讀呢?會是重新啟航嘅起點嗎?只有「未來」才有答案了。

最後講講本熊嘅部署,由於今月其他股票其實表現不錯,所以會襯機賣出一部份175/ BABA/ NTNX 以騰出空間接一半貨。跟著做sc以圖降低成本,按目前價位一個月sc$3左右,若再無重大災情咁應該用半年時間可以roll到平手。要留意在深淵爬行開頭係最辛苦嘅,爬到一段路程見少少光便會好好多了。而另外一半會繼續sp roll down價位,大前提係股價唔會再大插插啦。


話說本熊不太久之前才見識過$180以下嘅TSLA$18以下嘅NTNX$140以下嘅AAPL,希望今次嘅「未來」唔會係例外啦。


Logbook 實在太長本熊都係直接講結果:

TSLA 2.1%
175 -1.2%
17
AAPL
NTNX 4.63%
BABA 5.4%
700 -0.08%
3698 
BYND -26.4%
1810 0.83%
6030 0.27%
939 0.95%
2382
823 1.3%
1398 0.22%
NIO 0.74%

Total -11.24%


十月結算:-11.24% (回報已包括交易成本十一月一開始又在負方作賽了。


十月開倉 (1st Nov)

TSLA:
24/9 sold Oct4 210 put @0.93% (premium forfeited)
4/10 sold Oct18 215 put @1.17% (premium forfeited)

175:
27/9 sold Oct30 14 call @0.49% (29/10 bought @-2.74%, real stock sold)
27/9 sold Oct30 12.5 put @1.05% (premium forfeited)
17:
29/8 sold Nov28 11 put @4.83%
16/10 sold Nov28 9.75 put @0.56%
AAPL:
NTNX:
20/9 sold Oct4 27.5 call @1.98% (premium forfeited)
24/9 sold Oct4 24 put @0.65% (premium forfeited)
4/10 sold Oct18 27.5 call @1.05% (premium forfeited)
10/10 sold Oct18 22.5 put @0.65% (premium forfeited)
18/10 sold Nov1 28 call @0.72% (1/11 stock called, MTM @-1.29%)
21/10 sold Nov1 28.5 call @0.64% (1/11 stock called, MTM @-0.58%)
25/10 sold Nov1 27.5 put @0.81% (premium forfeited)
1/11 sold Nov15 27.5 put @0.68%
BABA:
20/9 sold Oct4 185 call @1.86% (premium forfeited)
23/9 sold Oct4 170 put @0.97% (4/10 bought @-0.37%)
27/9 sold Oct11 152.5 put @0.81% (premium forfeited)
27/9 sold Oct11 177.5 call @0.57% (premium forfeited)
9/10 sold Oct18 172.5 call @0.59% (18/10 bought @-1.65%)
11/10 sold Oct18 162.5 put @0.31% (premium forfeited)
18/10 sold Nov1 177.5 call @1.86% (premium forfeited)
20/10 sold Nov1 167.5 put @0.55% (premium forfeited)
1/11 sold Nov1 175 put @0.29% (premium forfeited)
1/11 sold Nov1 177.5 put @0.25% (1/11 bought @-0.64%)
700:
27/9 sold Oct30 330 put @0.73% (30/10 bought @-1.09%)
16/10 sold Oct30 340 call @0.28% (premium forfeited)
24/10 sold Nov28 300 put @0.72%
30/10 sold Nov28 320 put @1.25%
3698:
BYND:
23/9 sold Oct4 125 put @0.94% (premium forfeited)
7/10 sold Oct18 128 put @1.22% (18/10 bought @-11.4%)
14/10 sold Oct25 110 put @1.46% (23/10 bought @-7.2%)
17/10 sold Oct18 124 call @0.62% (premium forfeited)
18/10 sold Nov1 118 put @9.94% (1/11 stock assigned, MTM @-22%)
23/10 sold Nov15 95 put @6.9%
29/10 sold Nov15 105 call @0.66%
30/10 sold Nov22 110 call @0.65%
1810:
27/9 sold Oct30 8.5 put @0.83% (premium forfeited)
31/10 sold Nov28 8.25 put @0.39%
6030:
11/10 sold Oct30 16.5 call @0.27% (premium forfeited)
939:
4/10 sold Oct30 5.75 put @0.73% (premium forfeited)
11/10 sold Oct30 6.5 call @0.22% (premium forfeited)
2382:
823:
26/9 sold Oct30 85 put @1.58% (29/10 bought @-0.28%)
10/10 sold Nov28 75 put @0.98%
1398:
11/10 sold Oct30 5.75 call @0.22% (premium forfeited)
1/11 sold Nov28 6 call @0.28%
NIO:
1/10 sold Oct11 1 put @0.74% (premium forfeited)

留言

  1. 本熊兄的期權炒作似乎十分刺激呢!

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    1. 賭仔性格,太安全太悶,唔高beta 唔玩

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  2. 美股期权的選擇真的比港股期权多很多呢

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  3. TSLA 5月爆跌做SP重傷, 呢隻野癲到暈, 明白你感受

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