二月股票期權倉(月結)砍掉重練

今個星期大市有幾癲唔洗多講啦,美杜一個星期可以行咗一整年嘅波幅,本熊更是中咗兩記重拳直接knockout 被抬出場。第一拳叫NTNX、第二拳叫BYND,兩隻都係今個星期公報業積,業績無大問題但都被殺跌超過三成,本熊啲次決定唔守止損計數離場。

1. NTNX:玩得啲癲股貪高premium 就有極大嘅風險,本熊在績先預咗兩成buffer 位做sp,即唔跌多過兩成都照贏的。可大市連日大跌,績前一天去到只有一成左右 (其實應該唔走曬都要向後撤的,無做真的抵死) 就是心存僥倖以為大市隨時反彈,等出業績可以反攻。可NTNX 出嚟業績當季度無問題,但就因應新冠肺炎adjust 來季嘅預測,咁就被挑骨頭話管理不善,績後被質多兩三成,直接插落水底無水花。

這個跌幅當然不是因為業績不好而是大戶玩野啦,因NTNX 轉型咗做subscription 以現時環境其實更安全 (比較例如retail、reits跌八成營業額) 可是唔會知道大戶想玩幾耐,可以係三五七個星期、或者係三五七個月,期間跌多幾多先彈完全無數計,尤其是目前美杜市況可以說無險可守的境地 (本熊被blog 友share 嘅Dow Jones 十年圖嚇親,跌一成多也只是進入調整區,遠不是結束) 於是決定止損離場。

2. BYND:被本熊寄予厚望,較後一天出業績嘅BYND,一直係淡友追踪嘅目標。本熊經過一月嘅瘋狂操作,至二月其實已經減少咗參與密度,降低咗注碼和expectation (詳見一月月結) 本熊在績前嘅步署,係用ATM sp 和現貨加 sc,做一個一成左右嘅range,若爆升就放現貨、若跌一成左右都夠premium 包底、唔升唔跌就very good 繼續食premium,以為都足夠保守 (在績前一晚還看到$135-155 嘅call 一直升價) 可BYND 出嚟業績revenue beat 預期、EPS 就差果一點點 ($0.01@ 其實要做數一定做得到) 便又直接被質低兩成過外,穿咗本熊$100 嘅心理關口,本熊僅有嘅信心都被擊破了。

關鍵日子除了星期三無全走/ 後撤NTNX sp,更重要係星期四比個市fake 咗。當日美杜開市又跌近千,跟著奇蹟回殺上跌剩一二百點 (大概午夜一點左右) 若守到尾會形成底位長針的見底訊號,說明有力買番上去,後市可望轉勢。本熊於是掉以輕心走去訓覺 (因為玩美股本熊分咗兩段時間訓,十二點幾訓到四點幾、跟著五點收市後訓多轉到九點幾) 但訓醒收市結果跌番過千點,加上BYND 市後pre market 表現,本熊對自己講吾命休矣。

決心止損撤退除了承認自己判斷錯誤、更重要係唔夠discipline 玩大咗,現貨槓緊1.6x、加上一直望住條「當前可用資金」去操作sp (即玩到好盡),個市插落黎NAV 一縮leverage ratio 立即大增。雖然都唔會玩到被call margin,但一直要mon 住壓力實在不小。

更更更重要係本熊堅持一直戰鬥,原因係坐住一二月初贏黎嘅利潤 (上月BYND 大捷) 曾經嘅NAV YTD 30%+。恃住有碼在手就無咁緊慎,一直想績後食滿糊離市,就是大市一路跌還不撤退,NAV 一直縮,直到確認戰略失敗,計數已然接近回到年初水平,這個本熊設定的強制平倉缐,於是乎唔理將來有否反彈,堅決到咗止損點便要手起刀落了。

可說是本熊將能夠輸的都賠上了,被熊娘一句「貪勝不叫輸」完全ko...

由於玩美股期權實在太傷身,本熊決定 (暫時) 關閉美股分部了,還是不要迫得自己太緊,集中玩港股大A 算。

至於後市如何,本熊認為中央銀行,尤其是美聯儲確定放水救市,就係吹起撒退嘅集角號 (有說昨晚美聯儲主席表示會考慮出招,市場共識係降0.25釐,導致美杜收市前十五分鐘爆升七百多、美匯尤其對日元大幅回落) 畢竟新冠肺炎對經濟嘅影響係十分之實在,尤其有報導指美國和日本釆取不檢驗不隔離嘅放任政策,咁佢地出大事也只是時間嘅問題。

操作方面,實貨槓杆會不斷下降 (目前1.3x),sp 接貨額度會被嚴格控制 (目前1.1x),久違了的mark 簿仔又再出動,更重要係重讀本熊期權操作手冊,每月做夠月目標便收工了,不要將自己置於不必要的險地。

市況凶險,保命要緊!


Logbook 實在太長本熊都係直接講結果:

TSLA
175 1.81%
17
AAPL
NTNX -29.26%
BABA -4.91%
700 1.6%
3698
BYND 7.91%
1810 0.43%
6030 0.4%
939 -0.63%
2382
823
1398 0.27%
16
9988 -1.01%
2318 -0.87%
NIO 1.1%
3690 0.46%
1336

Total: -22.7%

二月結算:-22.7% (回報已包括交易成本)


二月開倉 (28 Feb)

TSLA:

175:
20/1 sold Feb27 13.5 put @0.45% (premium forfeited)
20/1 bought Feb27 16.5 call @-0.51% (totaled)
29/1 sold Mar30 14 put @4.87% (28/2 bought @-2.7%)
30/1 sold Mar30 14 put @6.29% (28/2 bought @-2.7%)
6/2 sold Feb27 13.5 put @2.06% (premium forfeited)
11/2 bought Feb27 16 call @-1.34% (totaled)
11/2 bought Mar30 17 call @-2.93% (write off)
11/2 bought Mar30 18 call@-1.68% (write off)

17:
AAPL:

NTNX:
4/2 sold Feb28 27.5 put @1.56% (28/2 bought @-13.1%)
14/2 sold Feb28 30 put @0.78% (28/2 bought @-9.8%)
20/2 sold Feb28 30 put @0.58% (28/2 bought @-9.8%)
27/2 sold Feb28 26 call @0.52% (premium forfeited)

BABA:
27/1 sold Feb14 187.5 put @1.37% (premium forfeited)
27/1 sold Feb7 222.5 call @1.07% (premium forfeited)
27/1 bought Feb14 225 call @-2.34% (11/2 sold half @1.99%;12/2 sold 1/4 @1.82%;13/2 sold 1/4 @0.25%)
12/2 bought Feb21 230 call @-2% (13/2 sold @0.76%)
12/2 bought Feb28 245 call @-1.97% (13/2 sold @0.62%)
13/2 sold Feb28 210 put @1.3% (28/2 bought @-8.49%)
24/2 sold Mar6 220 call @0.68%
28/2 sold Feb28 215 call @0.71% (premium forfeited)

700:
13/1 sold Feb27 380 put @0.68% (premium forfeited)
4/2 sold Feb27 410 call @0.48% (premium forfeited)
5/2 sold Feb27 370 put @0.44% (premium forfeited)
14/2 sold Mar30 390 put@0.56%
18/2 sold Mar30 390 put @0.43%
27/2 sold Mar30 420 call @0.67%

3698:

BYND:
10/1 bought Feb21 135 call @-1.5% (totaled)
10/1 bought Feb21 155 call @-1.59% (4/2 sold @1.65%)
13/1 sold Feb21 180 call @3.79% (premium forfeited)
13/1 bought Feb21 175 call @-2.64% (totaled)
13/1 sold Feb21 190 call @1.93% (premium forfeited)
14/1 sold Feb21 210 call @2.22% (premium forfeited)
14/1 bought Feb21 195 call @-2.45% (totaled)
29/1 sold Feb7 130 call @2.01% (premium forfeited)
30/1 sold Feb7 130 call @1.43% (premium forfeited)
31/1 bought Feb7 105 call @-8.32% (7/2 sold @5.75%)
31/1 sold Feb7 120 call @2.01% (premium forfeited)
31/1 sold Feb14 120 call @2.08% (premium forfeited)
3/2 sold Feb7 115 call @0.89% (7/2 bought @-2.63%)
3/2 sold Feb7 110 call @1.07% (7/2 bought @-5.98%)
7/2 sold Feb7 114 put @0.65% (premium forfeited)
7/2 sold Feb14 115 call @5.53% (14/2 bought @-0.8%)
7/2 sold Feb14 125 call @2.29% (premium forfeited)
7/2 bought Feb14 106 put @-1.45% (totaled)
10/2 bought Feb21 135 call @-1.81% (14/2 sold @0.78%)
10/2 sold Feb14 130 call @1.79% (premium forfeited)
11/2 sold Feb14 115 put @1% (14/2 bought @-0.02%)
13/2 sold Feb14 118 call @0.39% (13/2 bought @-0.2%)
13/2 bought Feb14 118 call @-0.2% (14/2 sold @0.42%)
14/2 sold Feb21 115 call @2.98% (21/2 bought @-2.89%)
14/2 sold Feb21 120 call @1.79% (premium forfeited)
14/2 sold Feb28 116 put @6.5% (28/2 bought @-20.2%)
18/2 sold Feb21 115 put @0.62% (premium forfeited)
19/2 sold Feb21 118 put @0.82% (21/2 bought @-0.22%)
21/2 sold Feb28 119 call @8.99% (premium forfeited)
24/2 sold Feb28 135 call @1.07% (27/2 bought @-0.66%)
24/2 sold Feb28 155 call @0.39% (premium forfeited)
27/2 sold Feb28 129 call @0.63% (premium forfeited)

1810:
17/1 sold Feb27 11.5 put @0.43% (premium forfeited)

6030:
30/1 sold Mar30 16 put @2.08% (28/2 bought @-0.84%)
3/2 sold Feb27 16.5 call @0.38% (25/2 bought @-1.58%)

25/2 sold Mar30 17 call @1.9%

939:
20/1 sold Feb27 6.5 put @0.58% (26/2 bought @-1.74%)
20/1 bought Feb27 7 call @-0.64% (totaled)
29/1 bought Mar30 7 call @-0.33% (28/2 sold @0.71%)
29/1 sold Mar30 6.25 put @1.02%
4/2 sold Feb27 6.5 call @0.2% (premium forfeited)
10/2 sold Mar30 6.25 put @0.87%
19/2 sold Feb27 6.5 call @0.59% (premium forfeited)
26/2 sold Mar30 6.25 put @1.52%
28/2 sold Mar30 6.75 call @1.21%

2382:


823:
21/2 sold Mar30 75 put @0.78%

1398:
29/1 sold Feb27 5.5 put @1.15% (26/2 bought @-1.2%)
4/2 sold Feb27 5.5 call @0.32% (premium forfeited)
26/2 sold Mar30 5.25 put @0.94%
26/2 sold Mar30 5.5 call @0.74%

16:

9988:
10/2 bought Feb27 225 call @-1.01% (totaled)
14/2 sold Mar30 205 put @1.53%

2318:
29/1 sold Feb27 92.5 put @0.95% (26/2 bought @-1.59%)
6/2 sold Feb27 95 call @0.28% (17/2 bought @-0.08%)
20/2 bought Feb27 95 call @-0.43% (totaled)
26/2 sold Mar30 90 put @1.41%

NIO:
10/2 sold Feb28 3 put @1.1% (premium forfeited)
14/2 sold Mar6 3 put @0.87%

3690:
18/2 sold Feb27 97.5 put @0.46% (premium forfeited)

1336:
25/2 sold Mar30 30 put @1.24%

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